Sunday, April 19, 2020, Day 35, Week 5, Month 2 of Self Isolation.

Global Cases 2,345,331
Global Deaths 161,191
UK Cases 114,217
UK New Deaths 888 Total Deaths 15,464

The Numbers

I’m starting to think that, apart from the reported deaths, which are in-hospital deaths where the patients have been tested and tested positive, most of the numbers are meaningless.

If we just look at the countries at the top of the worldometer table which is ranked by number of confirmed cases:

  • USA 738,792
  • Spain 194,416
  • Italy 175,925
  • France 151,793
  • Germany 143,724
  • UK 114,217

They are at the top because they have the highest numbers of conformed cases. But the number of confirmed cases relies on TESTING.

The rates of testing (per million population) are:

  • Italy 21,598
  • Germany 20,629
  • Spain 19,896
  • USA 11,245
  • France 7,103
  • UK 6,783

Does this mean that, as we are testing less than Italy, who have a population around the same size as ours (UK 66 million, Italy 60 million), we will have way more cases, and therefore way more deaths, than them in the end?

France and Thailand also have populations of around 66/67 million.

France seems to be coming out the other side of their peak. A week ago their daily death rates were around 1000. We may, or may not, be in our peak now so are a couple of weeks behind them. Their total death rate is 19K and we are already at 15K.

Thailand is testing even less than us. 1,440 per million. They only have 2,733 cases and ony 47 total deaths. Really?

None of it makes sense. The point is that we really don’t know what is going on!

An antibody study in California suggests that 4% of the population have been infected already and not the 0.07% that has been reported. What that does mean is that actual numbers everywhere are likely to much higher than reported. The positive side to that is that actual case fatality rates are much lower.

The News

Whatever the number do or don’t tell us, there is a growing sense in the UK that the wheels are falling off for the government.

An article in The Times, of all places, describes “38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster”, citing the PM missing 5 COBRA meetings, dismissing calls to order PPE and ignoring the scientists warnings to take action.

Care home deaths are estimated to be more than 4000 and not the 217 that have been “reported”.

The New Way of  Life

Incredibly lazy day yesterday, largely down to being slightly hungover.

After I wrote my blog post in the late afternoon, we cooked pizza for dinner and watched mainstream Saturday night TV before a very sober early night!

As we haven’t dared to risk a takeaway since lockdown began, our gesture to Saturday night “fast-food” has been to buy basic ready made Margarita pizzas and add our own toppings to them. I add extra cheese, pepperoni chilli and olives. M has all of the above plus even more cheese and, rather bizarrely, sliced hard boiled egg!

Out TV consumption was even more unusual. We watched Ninja Warror, Britain’s Got Talent and Through the Keyhole. I can honestly say, hand on heart, we have never ever, ever watched three back to back Saturday night mainstream TV programmes live on ITV. What is happening to us? Oh yes, its called lockdown!

A Rant!

I am hearing disturbing stories of people I know who are ignoring lockdown. People who believe it’s all a conspiracy and are carrying on as normal, inviting people into their homes and visiting other people in theirs, telling their teenage children that they don’t need to follow lockdown, ignoring the fact that said teenage children are encouraging their friends to break their lockdown and meet up in secret from their parents. Men who are telling their partners that they had to pick up “essential business items” at friends houses which took several hours to do and involved drinking beer, or coming home very late from “work” with stories about cars breaking down.

One “man” sent his “mate” round to get some tools from his house. His partner didn’t feel able to refuse to let him in. A couple of days later, the “mates” wife tested positive for the virus. She was routinely tested because she was a care worker and was completely asymptomatic. How many people has he infected without knowing it? That’s why we are doing this YOU MORONS!

These people will never read this, but if they do;

YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE AND SHAME ON YOU!

I know who you are, and I will never forget how you have behaved during this crisis. How you have behaved so selfishly and irresponsibly. How you have shown complete  disregard for the safety of others. How you have shown compete disrespect for the sacrifices other people are making and the heartbreaking tragedies so many are experiencing.

Some people haven’t left their homes for weeks.

Some people have been separated from their loved ones for weeks.

Some people have missed out on holidays and birthdays and anniversaries.

Some people have postponed their weddings.

Some people are losing their jobs, their businesses, their homes, struggling to feed their families.

Some people are frightened, stressed and exhausted.

Some people are losing their lives.

Some people are dying alone and being buried alone.

Some people are grieving on their own.

15,464 families in this country are grieving right now and you are selfishly carrying on with your lives as if nothing is happening.

SHOW SOME F***ING RESPECT!

Imagine how much worse it would be if we were all behaving like you. What makes you so special? What gives you the right to continue to do as you please?

Why can’t you just try to be a decent human being?

I am utterly disgusted by you …

 

 

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