Friday, March 27, 2020, Day 12, Week 2, of Self Isolation.

Global Cases 598,318
Global Deaths 27,373
UK Cases 14,546
UK Deaths 759

So, today saw an extra 181 deaths in the last 24 hours in the UK. The words just trip off the tongue but the meaning behind them is deeply disturbing. Italy saw 919 deaths in the past 24 hours. 919 in 24 hours! It prompted me to have a dig around in the numbers on a website my sister recommended, worldometer.

USA are leading the way with the number of cases with 104,126 followed by Italy with 86,498.

China sit third at 81,340 followed by Spain with 65,719, Germany with 50,871, France with 32,964, Iran with 32,332 and the UK with 14,543.

In terms of deaths Italy is way ahead with 9,134. There is a serious catastrophe occurring in that country. I can’t imagine what they are going through.

Spain is next with 5,138, then China with 3,292, Iran with 2,378, France with 1,995, the USA with 1,69 and then the UK with 759.

If the deaths in relation to the cases don’t make sense, it’s all about the testing. The UK has been lagging behind the rest of the world in terms of our testing. Rough estimates suggest that if you use the death rate and multiply by 1000 you will get a better estimate of the actual number of cases.

So – I did a little bit of playing around with the numbers:

COVIDWhat this shows is the populations of the countries expressed as millions.

The number of deaths in each country and the death rate per million.

An estimate of actual cases based on death rate x1000

Estimated cases per million population

Reported (tested) cases and reported cases per million.

So, what does it tell us:

Death rates and estimated cases are really high in Italy and Spain.

On the other hand rates in China are surprisingly low. Is this because they locked down so quickly and prevented spread? Have they underreported? Have they got more to come when it hits the rest of the country?

More importantly, what is coming our way? Italy is at the peak now and the numbers are terrifying.

We are currently converting exhibition centres like the ExCel and the NEC into giant hospitals with thousands of beds and oxygen and ventilators. Birmingham Airport is being set aside for an emergency mortuary!

The big news is that the PM Boris Johnson and the Health Secretary Matt Hancock have tested positive and the CMO Chris Whitty is self-isolating with symptoms.

On a personal note, I had a good night sleep again. Might be calming down about our new normal way of life.

Did a bit of writing and reading. No yoga today as  M had a virtual coaching session for most of the morning. Steady stream of remote social interactions today. FT with son from Sweden. Constant phone calls from my daughter who was doing a shop for me in Waitrose. More about that in a bit. A friend dropped of The Joker DVD for us to watch over the weekend. He dropped it on the doorstep and I disinfected it and washed my hands of course! We had a brief chat 2m apart. I hung a bag of novels on the fence for another friend to collect. She’s desperate for more things to read and I had loads of books that I have finished on the bookshelf. We had a chat 2m apart when she came by to collect them. No bike ride today but we went for a walk in the afternoon. It’s going to be the last sunny day today for a while.

About my shopping list for my daughter. I gave her a list of things that I couldn’t get (or carry home from) at the local shops or on Ocado. Apparently, she and her brother were hysterical when she read it to him.

“Mum’s COVID-19 Essential Shopping List:

San Pellegrino Water

Pearl Barley

Cans of Diet Coke and Sprite

Bread Flour

Rapeseed Oil”

I can’t understand why they found it so funny. Oh well, at least it entertained them for a minute or two.

I have been cooking a lot and baking too. Food has become very important. Might need to calm it down a bit though as my jeans are feeling a bit tight today. I need to wear them more instead of the indoor obligatory loose fitting track suit trousers. I haven’t dared get on the scales. It would be very ironic to survive COVID-19 and die of a stroke or a heart attack!

Talking of food, cooked an amazing Halloumi Tikka Curry last night with spiced cabbage and onion biryani! Yum. We watched the new season of Ozark before bed.

I did feel a bit achy with a slight sore throat before I went to bed – I’m sure its hypochondria though …



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